A Fastidious Hat

Turkey Tom


Make Money, Money Week IX E-mail
Written by Gideon   
Thursday, 29 October 2009 14:42

Similar to the upside down 2009 Big 12 North, my NCAA vs NFL success has been backwards this season. My picks went 2-4 last week to drop me to .500 on the year, and once again the Colts and my NFL wagers had to bail me out on Sunday. I'm historically much more successful at NCAA than NFL, so last weekend was distressing. However, as Churchill said, "success consists of going from failure to failure without losing the balls to be on that action, gentlemen".


And so we press on, hoping that our fortunes as gambling men and Tiger fans have a sunnier weekend in store:

Season record ATS 42-39 (+0 Units), lines are Mirage as of 3 PM 10/29

(All 1 unit plays this week)

Purdue (+6.5) at Wisconsin

The Badgers and their startlingly large farm boys have a decided advantage in the trenches against Purdue. Wisconsin is at home and should be fresher, after enjoying a bye week, than the Boilermakers, for whom this is the ninth straight weekend on the gridiron. In addition to the wear and tear that Purdue has to cope with, the Badgers are a power running team averaging 4.4 YPC against an opponent that has allowed 18 rushing touchdowns. Wisconsin wins on a physical rushing game that leads the way to a balanced offensive attack while Purdue struggles to maintain the 4.5 YPC that they enjoyed against weaker defenses.

Wisky as the Badgers win at home 30-20

Miami (FL) (-7) at Wake Forrest

The 'Canes have a significant edge on both sides of the ball (offense #17-63, defense #20-66) and will clearly be the more talented team in this ACC battle. While I don't expect Wake to have success rushing the ball against Miami's big boys (Wake averages 3.4 YPC) I do look for Skinner and the passing attack (a solid 8.1 YPA) to put some points on the board. I like Jacory Harris to continue his passing success for Miami (9.4 YPA) and simply outscore the Demon Deacons.

Da U covers on the road 34-24

Iowa State (+7) at Texas A&M;

I don't really get this line but is safe to say that no one really gets the schizophrenic Aggies. A&M;'s drastic improvement in thrashing Texas Tech 52-30 after losing 62-14 to Kansas State the week before is reminiscent of a girl I knew in high school, we'll call her Karen, that showed up after her first year of college with a boob job - she went from average to instantly fantastic. While I know that Karen will remain that fantastic for at least the next 10 years, the question is will A&M; be as good as they were against Leach's boys? Regardless of the answer, they won't need to be. Whether starters Austin Arnaud (QB) and Alexander Robinson (RB) play or not, the Cyclone attack is simply average at best (24.3 PPG, 4.8 YPC, 6.3 YPA) compared to A&M; (35.9 PPG, 4.2 YPC, 7.3 YPA). Essentially, while Iowa State may be able to move the ball on the ground with Robinson, A&M; should have greater and more frequent success with a balanced attack. As long as the Aggies don't hand the 'Clones 8 turnovers ala the kind and giving Huskers, A&M; should win this comfortably.

Stay at home with the Aggies (that came out wrong) as they win 37-20

Missouri (-4) at Colorado

Yeah I'm betting the Tigers again this week, bitch, and we both know you like it. There's enough analysis out there on this game, and most of it points to a careful management of the game by Mizzou to win by a FG. Because Colorado is so good, right? And this more talented Tiger team is going to have to be on its best behavior to eke out a victory in Boulder. I respect all that analysis, most of which is vastly superior to my own rudimentary methods, but look, this Tiger team just came out of its worst three game stretch in recent years. We have seen amazing flashes of talent on both sides of the ball, despite these losses. Can you say the same for Colorado? Missouri doesn't need to "put it all together" and "play a perfect game" to win this weekend. They have to (and will) take care of the football, employ a balanced attack, and beat a less talented and poorly coached team by more than four points.

Be a homer, play the Tigers as they get a MUCH needed win 30-24

More picks and closing comments up after I finish being an adult here at work...

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