| 14 July 2009
9 steps to a Mizzou National Championship. WE BELIEVE!
BIG 12 RACES
Saturday's results were once again predictable -- with one exception. Perhaps as a perverse reaction to my deeply-ingrained anti-KUism, something like an allergic reaction, I'd picked the Jayhawks over Nebraska, actually believing that the Manginos were on a higher plateau than the crazy Bo Pelinis. As it has always been with me and the Jayhawks, the result was something like a swift kick to the groin. My perfect season has been ruined -- I'm 17-1 at UFR picking Big 12 games.
The division races in the conference are hardly any more clear than they were last week at this time. In the North, MU should wrap things up this weekend by beating Iowa State, assuming Texas treats the Jayhawks like the defenseless kittens that they are. That would leave KU in the spoiler role in the big Arrowhead matchup on Nov. 29, should Gary Pinkel and Co. have designs on bigger and better things. The way the Tigers have played the last two weeks, however, they better keep their focus on the Cyclones.
In the South, the picture will remain muddled until we know the winner of Texas Tech-Oklahoma on Nov. 22. The simplest scenario is of course for Tech to win out. After the game at Norman, their only other regular-season game is at home against Baylor on Nov. 29. Texas, meanwhile, after visiting Lawrence this weekend, has an off-week, then finishes at home against Texas A&M.
We've already gone through the three-team tiebreaker scenarios in the South, so this week, let's pose a different question: Who should Mizzou fans be rooting for in the South?
THE BIGGER PICTURE
Now it's time to dream, where I outline Missouri's Nine Steps to the National Title. How likely is this to happen? Well, jump back to the intro graf and think about that scenario with the Royals trailing 13-2 entering the bottom of the ninth. That's about where we're at. There are 11 teams standing between Missouri and college football's grand prize.
Forget the SEC: Alabama has home games left against Mississippi State and Auburn. Florida, who is playing better than anybody in the country, has a home game against No. 23 South Carolina, a gimme against the Citadel and a potential toughie at No. 20 Florida State. Still, chances are that 'Bama and the Gators will square off in the SEC championship game on Dec. 6. The winner will play in the BCS title game. The loser won't. And forget about Georgia, if Mizzou keeps winning, they'll pass the Bulldogs in the computers and the polls. (Nine teams left in the way.)
USC must lose: If all the other steps in my dream scenario come to pass, then USC is going to have to lose a second game. The Trojans play at Stanford next week, then host Notre Dame before finishing at UCLA on the same day as the Big 12 championship game. Keep your fingers crossed for an upset. (Eight teams left in the way.)
Penn State must lose: Again, if the other dominoes fall as needed, you don't want a one-loss Penn State team in the way. If it came down to that or a two-loss MU team fresh off of Big 12 championship win over Texas, Texas Tech or Oklahoma, it'd be a tough call. The Nittany Lions play Indiana at home before finishing Nov. 22 against No. 18 Michigan State in Happy Valley. They then sit at home on their tails for two weeks, watching everyone else duke it out. Go Spartans. (Seven teams left in the way.)
Ohio State must lose -- again: Same deal with Penn State. The Buckeyes are ranked ahead of Mizzou in the current BCS standings and you don't want to count on a leap-frogging scenario. Ohio State plays at Illinois this week and hosts Michigan the week after to finish their season, before sitting back with the rest of the Big 10, laughing while the rest of the major conferences do the Right Thing. (Six teams left.)
Boise State must lose: Hey, they're No. 9 in the BCS. They still have to play at Nevada which could be a trap. Would a two-loss MU team leapfrog an undefeated Boise State team? I think so, but you'd hate to have to count on that. (Five teams left)
Utah must lose: The Utes are No. 7 in the BCS race -- a real threat. If they beat BYU on Nov. 29, they will have three wins over ranked teams under their belts, including a victory over Oregon State -- the only team to beat USC. Don't discount their chances. That BYU game is in Salt Lake City but there could be plenty of Mormon sympathizers in Columbia that day. (Four teams left.)
Missouri must win the Big 12: Well, duh. The Tigers have to win out, including a win over Texas, Texas Tech or Oklahoma at Arrowhead Stadium on Dec. 6. However, even if that happens, Mizzou made need additonal help.
Big 12 cards fall the right way: Here's the problem. A team from the Big 12 could go to the BCS championship game instead of Mizzou without playing in the Big 12 title game. Think about it. If Texas and Texas Tech win out in the regular season and Missouri wins the Big 12 title game over Tech, Texas would probably finish as the No. 2 team in the BCS standings. Same thing if the opponent is Oklahoma -- MU needs Texas to lose. If Missouri plays Texas in the title game and Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State, then even an MU win over UT probably wouldn't allow them to leapfrog OU. Your head spinning yet? Here's how it boils down: If Tech wins out: MU needs Texas to lose to KU or A&M.
If OU wins out: same thing as previous scenario except you'd have to hope MU would leapfrog a one-loss Tech team. If Texas is the Big 12 title game opponent: OU must lose at Oklahoma State and, again, you have to hope for a leapfrog over Tech If all of those things happen, then Mizzou could emerge as the Big 12 champion AND the No. 2 team in the BCS. (One team left in the way.)
Missouri wins BCS championship game: The Tigers knock off the Tide or the Gators in the Orange Bowl.
Anyway, that's what I'm selling. You buying it?
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