Written by Big Head
| 25 September 2009
I find it funny that the so-called pundits (looking at you Phil Steele) picked Mizzou to be 1-3 or, at best, 2-2 going in to conference season. Mizzou's one win away from another 4-0 start. Will it happen? I'd say 'bet your ass on it', but how does it go down in Reno? You can read that last line as dirty as possible; hookers are legal in Reno.
Blaine Gabbert can't make mistakes. This is his first true road start, and Nevada isn't going to take it light on him. Actually, their fans hate the head coach, Chris Ault. Matter of fact, a boycott is being called. Honestly, Nevada is a solid squad and Chris Ault is the best thing to happen in Reno since big ass comped breakfasts at the casinos. Gabbert can't turn the ball over. He's made great calls in 11 quarters of the season so far, and really pissed it away against Bowling Green for a quarter, and we saw how that went. Hold on to the ball tighter than Plaxico is holding on to his ass in Rikers, and we'll be fine.
On the flip, Colin Kapernick, Nevada's Mr. Everything QB, has been terrible. The guy has put the ball on the ground longer than Hasselhoff's cheeseburger. Turnover after turnover have killed the 0-2 Wolf Pack. They were demolished by a Notre Dame team that could be taken as being mediocre. They also lost to Colorado State, who've played out of their minds in the opening weeks.
Nevada does have a couple things going for them: it's their home opener (finally) and it's one of a bazillion nationally televised games for them this year. Nevada is doing their best to be the next big-time non-BCS program, and they are doing the Pat Hill philosophy of 'Any time, any where.'. On a scale of 1-10 of pants pooping fear, I'm at a 7 with this game, which is in the racing stripe category.
Oh, Nevada's fans hate their team.
In the words of Screamin' A Smith, the Wolf Pack D has been 'tewwible'. They've given up 35pts to both ND and Colorado State. At least they are consistent. Jimmy Clausen went for 315yds and a kansas handful (four) of touchdowns. Blaine Gabbert will have a good shot at throwing for something similar. Hell, Notre Dame even ran for 178yds on the Pack. DWash should have a chance at going for 125-150yds on them.
Nevada has gone to four straight bowls. This team does know how to win. Colin Kapernick is a solid QB when he doesn't give the skin up, and Vai Taua and Luke Lippencott make a great RB tandem. Lippencott is banged up more than my 1st car was, and you never know what you'll get with him, but with Taua, you know he's solid. Their rushing attack is probably better than Illannoy, and definitely Bowling Green's, which torched Mizzou for the 1st half. This will be a test.
As far as Nevada receiving threats go, they really have two guys. Brandon Wimberly and Tray Sessions are it. Neither of them have really impressive stats, but it doesn't help that your QB has a 1:4 TD-INT ratio. Coach Stec will probably sell out against the run, maybe going man-to-man on the outside. The fact is, this season, Pack receivers couldn't catch the flu, then again, they haven't seen the ball.
Nevada's D could go with the Bowling Green strategy of selling their souls out against the pass. The problem with that is a). You give DWash and Kendial Lawrence caves to run through and b). Nevada's D has laid down and died against the pass. Selling out against the pass with a horrendous pass defense? Might not be a good call.
Ault has a good running game and will probably go with the offensive strategy of 'A good running game runs the clock and keeps their offense off the field.'. Mizzou must capitalize on offensive opportunities because they could be few and far between if Nevada has it's way with time of possession. I'm still going far past the spread of 7pts in Mizzou's favor. I'm calling a Victory Whiskey drinking 35-14 win for the Tigers. It won't be easy, but Blaine Gabbert, DaNario, Jared Perry, and Wes Kemp will be too much for the Pack D. The Tigers have a quick strike offense, so even if Nevada does dominate the T.O.P., the Tigers will still throw points on the board. The problem comes if the Pack get up early, which could happen on pure adrenaline and being pissed off after getting waxed last year 69-17. It won't be a walk through the park, but the Tigers have better athletes at all positions.
