Written by Gideon
| 20 October 2009
A third of Big 12 play has passed for some of the conference's teams. Who has the inside track on the North? Can any conclusions be drawn at this early juncture?
Going 6-2 could put the division on ice for a team. Of the North squads, Nebraska would appear to have the best odds at that 6-2 record. If no North team reaches six conference wins, 5-3 would seem to be the likely record of the North representative in Dallas.
Until I see further evidence from Colorado and Iowa State, I can anticipate no more than three conference wins for each, with two being more probable. I'll go with 2-6 finishes in conference for both (sorry Buffs fans - loved the win vs. KU! Xoxo!).
Kansas State has boosted their chances in the North by jumping out to a 2-1 conference record, which puts them on top of the current standings. But the Kitties' record looks suspiciously like a girl taking her 21 shots - nobody expects her to get more than a handful down, but when she starts ripping them everyone is fired up. But we all know the inevitable. Before she can enjoy her victory the liquor catches up and that hot friend you were trying to talk to is holding back the birthday girl's hair instead of listening to your bullshit. Remember: the Cats lost to Louisiana-Lafayette. The Cajuns aren't a bad team but they did lose 55-0 at Nebraska and didn't impress against a truly sorry Western Kentucky team. The Kitties brutal stretch run of Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri and Nebraska has me counting them out until further notice. It's looking like a disappointing nose dive to 3-5 in conference for K State.
After eliminating half of the North we're left with the three teams most experts predicted would vie for a trip to Dallas: Mizzou, Kansas and Nebraska.
Kansas has the toughest road of the three after losing the check they were supposed to cash in Boulder. The Jayhawks can add that loss to likely L's at Texas, at Texas Tech and versus Oklahoma in Lawrence. Assuming the beakers beat Kansas State (no gimme during Homecoming in Manhattan) and split the games with Nebraska and Missouri (a W coming against the visiting Huskers), that will put the Fightin' Manginos at 3-5 in conference, out of North contention.
So it falls to Missouri or Nebraska to head to Dallas as a double digit dog versus Texas (probably). Not that any of our MizzouRah readers need a reminder, but that loss to Nebraska was a huge blow, a knee right to the balls, walking in on your girlfriend with your brother. Winning that game put the Huskers squarely in control of their own destiny.
Let's forecast the rest of the season for the two favorites:
Nebraska: 1-1 (Projection: 5-3)
Iowa State - W
@ Baylor - W
Oklahoma - L (a game the Huskers could win, especially if Bradford is out. Lincoln will be rocking)
Kansas - L (winnable for the Huskers, but I think Reesing and Dez win this one in Lawrence)
Kansas State - W
@ Colorado - W
Missouri: 0-2 (Projection: 5-3)
Texas - L
@ Colorado - W
Baylor - W
@ Kansas State - W
Iowa State - W
Kansas - W (if Mizzou is healthy they'll have the momentum to get revenge for last year)
The above scenario completely favors Nebraska. Not only could the Huskers beat the Sooners or Jayhawks, but the Tigers could easily lose to KU. And there's the matter of the tiebreaker, which the Huskers own.
Obviously, the North will not play out exactly like I've projected above. There will be upsets and surprises as last weekend showed us. But for the time being, the Tigers have to start hanging W's on the 2009 schedule or make plans to watch the Big 12 Title Game from home.
